Wow, the hits just keep coming. China and Russia aren’t exporting fertilizer. Ukraine and Russia aren’t exporting wheat or cooking oil. Indonesia just announced they will stop exporting palm and coconut oils. Many farmers here in the US aren’t planting or are changing to less productive methods. And how many US food production facilities have been taken down due to fires just this year? And then you have the baby formula shortages. And inflation.
At first, the media and government officials only warned that poorer countries that relied on exports from Russia and Ukraine would face famine. Now some are actually saying significant shortages could happen here.
Could??? Ok, could.
When we are living on our food storage 24/7/365, assuming we have food
stored, we will become healthier.
Consuming far less sugar and processed foods and more whole grains and
beans will do that to a person. So will
working in a garden and eating the results thereof.
A lot of people in this super-sized nation of ours are going to be
losing some serious weight. Including
yours truly. Part of the weight loss
will come from increased activity levels—working in the garden and walking
more. And part will come from eating
less. For some, it will be a lot less
and they will be less than happy about it.
They might even claim they are being starved.
Government figures suggest that the average adult male needs 2400-3200
calories per day. Women need 1800-2400
calories per day. Of course, with
increased activity levels-gardening, wood cutting, foraging, etc., we’ll be at
the upper end of the scale, needing more calories. But we’ll stick with the
government numbers for now.[1] Absolutely no one will starve when consuming
that many calories.
But what if we’re concerned about making our stores of food last as
long as possible? What if we recognize
that some of our family members could stand to lose some weight, i.e., eat a
lot less? How many calories do the obese
and overweight people in our lives really need?
The minimum numbers according to physicians are 1200 calories per day for women, and 1500 calories per day for men.[2] Below these levels, there is the real risk of not getting enough nutrients. Diets lacking protein will result in a loss of muscle mass. Long-term very low calorie diets (less than the 1200-1500 calories per day for adults) can cause serious health issues like bone loss, gallstones, and thyroid problems.
What about pregnant women who are overweight or obese? The CDC has suggested no extra calories for the first trimester, 340 extra calories for the second trimester, and 450 extra calories for the third trimester, with 500 extra calories per day for breastfeeding.[3] However, a more recent study from National Institutes of Health showed that obese women do not need any extra calories at all, even in the third trimester.[4] Obesity in pregnant women increases the risks of eclampsia, preeclampsia, and gestational diabetes, all difficult to treat without access to modern medicine.
Nobody is going to be very happy about eating far less than they used to. It would be best to lose the excess weight now. However, it’s important to recognize what the minimums are for calorie consumption so that we can avoid developing serious illnesses. It’s important to know that supplemental vitamins will be absolutely critical for those consuming less than 1200-1500 calories per day. And it’s important for the overweight and obese to know that they will soon be feeling better due to their improved diet and weight loss. TEOTWAWKI won’t be all bad.
Links to related posts:
Minnesota Starvation Experiment
Long-Term Food Storage Amounts
Calories and Recommended Food Storage Amounts
Where Does My Responsibility Begin and End?
[1] https://health.gov/sites/default/files/2019-09/2015-2020_Dietary_Guidelines.pdf (accessed 11 May 2022).
[2] https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/calorie-counting-made-easy (accessed 11 May 2022).
[3] https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternalinfanthealth/pregnancy-weight-gain.htm (accessed 11 May 2022).
[4] https://www.niddk.nih.gov/news/archive/2019/new-evidence-based-recommendations-calorie-intake-pregnant-women-obesity (accessed 11 May 2022).
7.4.24
These days ANYTHING the cdc says I view as skeptical. I don't trust them anymore. Same with what the "government" says about things.
ReplyDeleteIf things truly do go bad, trying to measure calories for everyone will drive you nuts. Just try to make healthy, nutritious meals as best you can. Malnutrition probably will happen as well as weight loss. It happened during the Depression. Men joining the Army in WWII were malnourished because they grew up during the Depression, so they had to build them back up in order for them to be fighting fit.(saw this in a documentary on YT)
Totally agree about the trustworthiness of the CDC and government, but their figures can at least serve as the base for beginning a discussion. I definitely don't plan on counting calories for everyone or being the food police. We've stored sufficient for our family. But not everyone has, and some families are going to be dealing with obese family members. No way those people are going to be allowed to continue consuming more than they need when families are trying to make their food stores last as long as possible.
DeleteIn the late 1990s the metric for obesity was changed to a certain BMI reading, not actual body fat percentage. A lean bodybuilder of a certain height and weight would be just as ‘obese’ by that metric as a couch potato with the same height and weight. You cannot trust BMI to figure out caloric intake.
ReplyDeleteAlso, 40% of those labeled as obese in this country eat 20%fewer calories than their acceptable BMI counterparts. Yes, the other 60% are eating as popular culture thinks fat people eat, but the rest are not. Thus the jokes about even looking at chocolate making one gain weight. Those people will probably not lose weight as fast in a famine as the true overeaters. If it comes to that, don’t assume they are sneaking food, rather they are blessed with efficient metabolisms, designed and/ or adapted to keep working hard on few calories as their ancestors had to do to survive.
We are all going to be put through the ringer soon with the president cutting off oil leases at the very time he is sending our oil reserves to Europe. We will be walking more, carrying loads while walking, turning down the heat, making do, doing without, etc. Yes, peoples bodies will be transformed, and many will be healthier while others find th it health declining. Some people will become very angry. Be kind, no matter what.
A post next week addresses the ridiculous BMI. "Put through the wringer" is a very nice euphemism for what is coming. We will become healthier, and I agree, some will become very angry. I will try to be kind.
DeleteJust be truthful, Jennifer. Truth hurts and people have to wake up and face it. If they're fat/obese, its not like they don't know it.
DeletePeople and their food, people and their phone and game addictions, its gonna be something to see when things get bad
Well, I never mean to hurt feelings, but the truth has to be told. Better now when it's not face to face and when people can make changes and mentally and physically prepare.
DeleteDon’t forget drug and alcohol abuse. I feel bad for their families, getting clean is a family affair.
DeleteI have no doubt life is going to be difficult for those coming clean from their addictions. The issue has been addressed in previous articles. I feel for their family members.
DeleteHonestly Jennifer when I first read your post this AM I just closed it to think.
ReplyDeleteA far better way *might* be how many calories does a Physically WORKING Person Need. Short answer, it depends on a lot of factors.
Sidestep the whole Fat-BMI-Obese drama. Those will resolve quite nicely when groceries get stupidly expensive and driving fuel-heating fuel becomes a luxury.
Maybe the issues of interpersonal violence that will become far more common due to loss of Anti-depressant meds as they run out and addictions (even Facebook withdrawal can be violent) should be a secondary article?
Right now, I am researching Rocket Mass Heater riser construction as I foresee that my homes heat issues this winter are going to get "Interesting". I've worked with them years ago and was amazed how Inefficient a high-quality wood stove was compared to a mass heater's once an evening firing with a double handful of tree limb droppings.
Those rocket stoves/heaters are incredible.
DeleteI wouldn't even know where to begin with the issue of anti-depressants when they run out. I just know it's going to be ugly. I'll be thinking about it.
Yes, the food will be served more generously to those who are actually working. However, everyone is going to have to work. The even uglier, and harder, questions revolve around who gets life-saving medications when the supply is limited, and who does not.